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Fiera Capital: US $102 Billion Predicting a 13 per cent Rally on the TSX by Year-End

Fiera Capital: US $102 Billion Predicting a 13 per cent Rally on the TSX by Year-End

April 12th, 2018
Business and Finance

Kristine Owram writes at Bloomberg , ” Fiera Capital Corp., with $129 billion (US$102 billion) in assets under management, sees the S&P/TSX Composite Index hitting 17,300 by the end of 2018 as global growth finally gives the resource-heavy benchmark a kick. That’s up from an earlier forecast of 16,900 at the beginning of the year and Tuesday’s close of 15,262.” While Bloomberg also reports “Canada is the second worst-performing stock market in the developed world this year after Switzerland, according to data compiled by Bloomberg”

Candice Bangsund presents the key global drivers currently influencing world markets over the next seven years.

“The TSX has not been this cheap versus the S&P 500 since the depths of the financial crisis,” said Candice Bangsund, vice-president and portfolio manager of global asset allocation at Montreal-based Fiera “When you take that in the context of robust global growth, accelerating earnings expectations and firm commodity prices, this argues for a nice reversal and a period of catch-up for the TSX, particularly as some of those lingering headline risks fade.”

Now as for Fiera pulling a rabbit out of the hat this year at the TSX/ S&P remains to be seen but zerohedge.com reports quite extensively on the financial conditions 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s highest closing record is 26,616.71 set on January 26, 2018. Today’s high are at :

TODAY IN THE MARKETS

Jean-Guy Desjardins

CM, LSc Com, CFA
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

What’s your outlook for 2016?

“This economic cycle has at least four years to go before we consider the possibility of another recession. We think global growth will be stronger than expected – at least 3.5%. U.S. growth should be above 3%. Europe will be picking up, and so will Japan. China will manage to hang in there with 6.5% to 7% growth. As a result, commodity prices will go up. I would put a target on the price of oil by year-end at about $65 (U.S.) a barrel. With a rising oil price and stimulative monetary and fiscal policy coming from the federal government, it’s like having three boosters to the Canadian economy. The place to put your money this year is the Canadian stock market. We expect it could gain 15% or more. The U.S. market could be up 10% in U.S. dollars, but flat or negative in Canadian dollars. We also favour buying European and Japanese equities. We are very negative on the traditional bond market.”

Dow poised to rise as Trump tweets Syria attack may not be imminent

What’s driving markets?

Geopolitical concerns are weighing on investors’ minds, after Trump on Wednesday signaled in a tweet that a missile attack on Syria was not far off, saying, “Get ready, Russia.” But early Thursday, a fresh tweet from Trump sounded less bellicose, as the  president posted: “Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!”

The possibility of a Western strike against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is backed by Russia, has been growing since a suspected government-sanctioned chemical-weapons attack killed civilians in Damascus over the weekend.” Writes Victor Reklaitis at Market Watch.

 

Fiera may seem optimistic but then again, maybe they know something we don’t?

“Speaking at a Thursday panel during the UBS Global Wealth Management Summit in Davos, the man responsible for allocating hundreds of billions in client funds said that geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates have created a “much more fragile situation” than in early 2016, when the Brexit vote and the U.S. elections weighed on markets. He noted that with fixed-income markets still expensive by historical standards, there’s less room to absorb negative surprises.” Writes zerohedge.com

Market participants should become a bit more concerned. Wherever you were in the risk spectrum a year or two ago, we think you should be a touch lower” said an unexpectedly alarmist Ivascyn who added that “We are not overly alarmist but we do think it’s time to take a bit of risk off the table.

Richard Paul

 

 

 

 

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